viernes, 29 de junio de 2012

Las quiebras de España

Según Invertia (no obstante, Rogoff dice que España incumplió pagos muchas veces en el siglo XIX: 1809, 1820, 1831, 1834, 1851, 1867, 1872 y 1882):
Monarca
Año
Felipe II
1557
Suspensión de asientos
Las diversas empresas bélicas hacen quebrar las cuentas
1575
Suspensión de asientos
1597
Suspensión de asientos
Felipe III
1607
Renegociación asientos
Felipe IV
1647
Suspensión de asientos
Sólo Castilla colaboraba económicamente, el resto de reinos se mostraron reticentes a colaborar
1652
Suspensión de asientos
1662
Suspensión de asientos
Carlos II
1666
Suspensión de asientos
Carlos IV
1799
No se pagan los intereses
Fernando VII
1814-1820
Déficit
España viene de la Guerra de Independencia y durante la Restauración absolutista se hace difícil mantener el equilibrio presupuestario
Isabel II
1866
Quiebra de la deuda
El coste de la construcción del tren lleva a una serie de impagos que se contagian y llevan a la quiebra del sistema financiero
Guerra Civil
1939
Impago deuda republicana
El General Franco reconoce la deuda de los nacionales, pero la deuda del bando republicano no la reconoce nadie por lo que los acreedores no reciben el dinero prestado

4 gráficos que resumen los poblemas de Chipre

jueves, 28 de junio de 2012

Lista CMA con 6 países de la €zona entre los 10 primeros

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Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name                       CDS                                        %                   
Greece
12220.19
96.86
Cyprus
1482.96
72.90
Argentina
1269.99
59.66
Portugal
827.51
51.72
Pakistan
970.78
50.32
Venezuela
911.61
48.59
Ukraine
855.00
45.46
Ireland
615.10
41.85
Spain
593.75
40.90
Italy
544.51
38.33

miércoles, 27 de junio de 2012

Récord: 6 países de la €zona en la lista CMA

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Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name                         CDS                                            %                   
Greece
12161.10
96.67
Cyprus
1443.19
72.01
Argentina
1293.19
60.35
Portugal
813.30
51.11
Pakistan
974.33
50.46
Venezuela
915.00
48.74
Ukraine
841.27
44.94
Ireland
610.00
41.60
Spain
586.81
40.55
Italy
538.86
38.03

Lista CMA: España se acerca peligrosamente a Irlanda

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Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Greece
12212.00
96.85
Cyprus
1432.50
71.75
Argentina
1299.98
60.54
Portugal
819.76
51.41
Pakistan
986.19
50.90
Venezuela
929.20
49.28
Ukraine
850.08
45.34
Ireland
613.00
41.86
Spain
590.17
40.74
Illinois/State of
220.92
38.16

España: empresas según número de empleados

Datos de 2011

lunes, 25 de junio de 2012

Lista CMA: España cada vez más cerca de Irlanda

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Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Greece
12118.30
96.95
Cyprus
1452.93
72.29
Argentina
1307.59
60.80
Pakistan
991.47
51.13
Venezuela
917.72
48.89
Portugal
761.26
48.62
Ukraine
855.00
45.54
Ireland
617.36
42.12
Spain
574.52
39.97
Egypt
695.00
39.04

¿Inactividad de Europa y el BCE?

Gráfico de los 4 rescates activos y las compras de bonos de BCE

viernes, 22 de junio de 2012

Lista CMA

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Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name                      CDS                      % Posibilidad de impago                    
Greece
11691.90
96.70
Cyprus
1444.97
72.15
Argentina
1320.29
61.05
Pakistan
992.59
51.23
Portugal
815.63
50.99
Venezuela
914.99
48.85
Ukraine
859.35
45.76
Ireland
627.94
42.70
Egypt
730.37
40.61
Spain
569.32
39.79

jueves, 21 de junio de 2012

Lista CMA: El empeoramiento egipcio nos lleva a perder 1 puesto

Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Greece11358.5096.95
Cyprus1465.6272.69
Argentina1246.0158.95
Portugal908.0955.09
Pakistan952.9449.81
Venezuela859.3746.72
Ukraine850.0045.42
Ireland654.5944.06
Egypt706.3339.59
Spain562.3439.40
Sovereign Tighteners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Portugal908.09-4.95-47.3155.09
Morocco281.03-3.09-8.9718.20
Netherlands111.08-1.83-2.079.48
Spain562.34-1.81-10.3639.40
Lithuania266.76-1.66-4.5017.39
Italy503.51-1.66-8.4936.17
Cyprus1465.62-1.62-24.0672.69
Austria173.00-1.34-2.3514.42
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Sovereign Wideners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Egypt
706.33
+4.02
+27.28
39.59
Russia
230.59
+3.83
+8.50
15.29
Norway
30.32
+2.79
+0.82
2.69
Dubai/Emirate of
361.32
+1.67
+5.94
23.39
Iraq
431.61
+1.56
+6.61
26.58
Croatia
525.28
+1.50
+7.79
31.33
Vietnam
344.68
+1.42
+4.84
26.67
Thailand
151.67
+1.32
+1.98
12.83

Previsiones de la FED - Junio 2012

PIB
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1201220132014
June 2012 Projections1.9 to 2.42.2 to 2.83.0 to 3.5
April 2012 Projections2.4 to 2.92.7 to 3.13.1 to 3.6
January 2012 Projections2.2 to 2.72.8 to 3.23.3 to 4.0
Tasa de paro

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2201220132014
June 2012 Projections8.0 to 8.27.5 to 8.07.0 to 7.7
April 2012 Projections7.8 to 8.07.3 to 7.76.7 to 7.4
January 2012 Projections8.2 to 8.57.4 to 8.16.7 to 7.6
Inflación

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1201220132014
June 2012 Projections1.2 to 1.71.5 to 2.01.5 to 2.0
April 2012 Projections1.9 to 2.01.6 to 2.01.7 to 2.0
January 2012 Projections1.4 to 1.81.4 to 2.01.6 to 2.0

miércoles, 20 de junio de 2012

lunes, 18 de junio de 2012

Lista CMA y CDS soberanos que más suben y bajan en el día

Datos de las 17.30
Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Greece11477.6096.47
Cyprus1540.9172.75
Argentina1265.0057.63
Portugal988.6356.29
Pakistan939.6047.58
Venezuela838.3544.13
Ukraine851.8743.85
Ireland679.1243.70
Spain621.4940.99
Illinois/State of227.3637.62
Sovereign Tighteners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Australia72.57-5.14-3.936.05
Philippines155.17-3.92-6.3312.58
China112.36-3.85-4.509.23
Norway30.33-3.77-1.192.56
Iraq433.08-3.76-16.9125.56
Thailand145.02-2.89-4.3211.73
Portugal988.63-2.63-26.6756.29
Malaysia119.93-2.37-2.919.83
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Sovereign Wideners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
New Zealand
93.00
+4.94
+4.38
7.69
Spain
621.49
+3.62
+21.69
40.99
Panama
141.83
+2.04
+2.83
9.24
Italy
553.95
+1.92
+10.42
37.52
United Mexican States
140.66
+1.62
+2.24
9.17
Colombia
141.50
+1.55
+2.17
9.23
South Africa
162.81
+1.48
+2.37
10.54
Chile
117.67
+1.44
+1.67
7.75

Radiografía de los problemas de la €zona

Many of Europe’s
Economies Are
Weakening . . .

. . . and Their Banks,
Which Dwarf Their
Economies, Are Hurting.
With Many Countries
Mired in Debt . . .
. . . and So Many People
Out of Work . . .
. . . Hundreds of Billions
In Aid Has Come Up Short.
˜˜˜

miércoles, 13 de junio de 2012

Lista CMA y CDS soberanos que más suben y bajan en el día

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Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Greece
7709.54
91.81
Cyprus
1634.86
74.90
Argentina
1325.16
59.44
Portugal
1035.64
58.12
Pakistan
923.97
47.09
Venezuela
827.67
43.82
Ukraine
846.14
43.66
Ireland
674.38
43.56
Spain
596.30
39.80
Illinois/State of
228.95
37.92
Sovereign Tighteners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Japan91.93-5.47-5.327.07
South Africa167.50-3.80-6.6210.87
Korea, Republic of125.90-3.66-4.7810.31
New Zealand90.42-3.64-3.417.51
China121.97-3.59-4.5410.01
Russia237.02-3.37-8.2715.00
Kazakhstan255.17-3.35-8.8316.05
Israel174.09-2.74-4.9011.24
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Sovereign Wideners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Australia
75.00
+3.59
+2.60
6.27
Cyprus
1634.86
+1.79
+28.73
74.90
Brazil
160.83
+1.68
+2.66
10.45
United States of America
49.14
+1.12
+0.54
4.13
Vietnam
348.88
+0.97
+3.36
25.90
Portugal
1035.64
+0.68
+7.03
58.12
Denmark
132.75
+0.68
+0.90
10.73
United Mexican States
146.25
+0.34
+0.50
9.55

martes, 12 de junio de 2012

Lista CMA y CDS soberanos que más suben y bajan en el día

Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Greece8782.0093.30
Cyprus1584.2173.90
Argentina1477.2063.47
Portugal1068.6859.41
Pakistan948.0747.99
Venezuela871.2745.53
Ukraine857.7844.12
Ireland679.3343.81
Spain602.4040.12
Illinois/State of234.8438.70
Sovereign Tighteners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Philippines172.50-4.19-7.5513.88
Korea, Republic of130.56-4.01-5.4510.68
Norway30.66-2.92-0.922.60
Iraq449.99-2.69-12.4226.50
Australia73.40-2.68-2.026.14
Indonesia206.40-2.67-5.6616.35
Japan96.32-2.29-2.267.40
Malaysia129.79-2.04-2.7110.63
Sovereign Wideners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Denmark135.19 +3.67 +4.7910.92
Czech Republic133.91 +2.71 +3.538.77
Israel178.10 +2.36 +4.1011.50
Finland87.50 +2.23 +1.917.21
Bahrain371.51 +2.15 +7.8022.48
Dubai/Emirate of371.60 +1.81 +6.6022.95
New Zealand92.46 +1.31 +1.207.67
Italy561.14 +1.31 +7.2338.00

Evolución de los depósitos de extranjeros en España

Gracias a @_perpe_

lunes, 11 de junio de 2012

Lista CMA y CDS soberanos que más suben y bajan en el día

Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Greece8524.5092.98
Cyprus1591.6674.09
Argentina1315.0059.46
Portugal1048.1658.43
Pakistan923.1547.09
Ukraine845.0043.65
Venezuela817.8543.46
Ireland666.0843.19
Spain575.5238.76
Illinois/State of235.0638.74
Sovereign Tighteners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
South Africa169.00-6.36-11.4810.97
Indonesia209.07-5.39-11.9116.56
Japan96.97-5.19-5.317.44
Turkey255.66-5.02-13.5216.08
Russia240.73-4.63-11.6815.23
Poland235.32-4.52-11.1314.92
Korea, Republic of131.15-4.40-6.0310.73
China125.80-4.24-5.5710.32
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Sovereign Wideners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
United States of America
49.27
+3.74
+1.77
4.15
Cyprus
1591.66
+2.46
+38.20
74.09
Norway
32.08
+0.04
+0.01
2.72

viernes, 8 de junio de 2012

Lista CMA y CDS soberanos que más suben y bajan hoy

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Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Greece
8533.20
93.02
Cyprus
1565.42
73.55
Argentina
1400.00
62.21
Portugal
1080.43
59.59
Pakistan
938.35
47.71
Ukraine
865.00
44.47
Venezuela
838.00
44.32
Ireland
685.00
44.15
Spain
587.01
39.41
Illinois/State of
237.96
39.18
Sovereign Tighteners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia131.64-2.61-3.538.61
Iraq468.44-1.47-7.0027.48
Portugal1080.43-1.25-13.6259.59
Egypt625.00-0.94-5.9334.76
New Zealand94.68-0.78-0.747.87
Israel178.78-0.75-1.3611.56
Slovenia388.34-0.54-2.1023.29
Colombia152.32-0.50-0.779.96
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Sovereign Wideners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Slovakia
270.88
+7.28
+18.38
16.98
Russia
257.33
+4.49
+11.06
16.22
Czech Republic
140.26
+4.07
+5.49
9.19
Kazakhstan
273.00
+3.02
+8.00
17.11
Bahrain
372.85
+2.96
+10.73
22.60
Netherlands
125.69
+2.95
+3.60
10.23
Latvia, Republic of
315.02
+2.86
+8.76
19.45
United States of America
49.00
+2.76
+1.32
4.13

jueves, 7 de junio de 2012

Lista CMA y CDS soberanos que más suben y bajan hoy

Datos de las 13.30
Highest Default Probabilities
Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Greece8532.9093.10
Cyprus1537.1872.94
Portugal1120.5460.93
Argentina1264.2557.67
Pakistan941.7147.88
Ireland694.6144.63
Ukraine865.4444.51
Venezuela828.7543.98
Illinois/State of235.9438.94
Spain573.6738.74
Sovereign Tighteners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
New Zealand95.50-5.58-5.657.94
Russia249.61-4.85-12.7215.78
Italy528.43-4.10-22.5736.34
Kazakhstan265.46-3.90-10.7716.69
Bulgaria353.07-3.74-13.7221.50
Australia76.33-3.72-2.956.40
Israel184.48-3.39-6.4611.91
Turkey275.37-3.27-9.3217.24
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Sovereign Wideners
Entity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%)
Lebanon
499.99
+2.65
+12.90
29.09
Cyprus
1537.18
+1.26
+19.19
72.94
Thailand
160.50
+0.63
+1.01
12.99
United States of America
48.12
+0.13
+0.06
4.06
Portugal
1120.54
+0.06
+0.64
60.93
Banque Centrale de Tunisie
275.00
+0.00
+0.00
17.20